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Free agency · 2026
Start with the risk of changing teams and a market estimate. Open a player only when you want the contract, model, and destination detail.
Risk is the odds of keeping less than 80% of platform-year portable production over the two seasons after signing. Bands anchor at measured 2019-2023 rung-by-spike rates (incumbent 23.5%, external 43.5%; with a career-year spike 36.7% and 56.3%) and the age-cliff flag escalates one band. Expected retention comes from a frozen regression on the same frame; portability flags are advisory until a larger sample prices them. Odds, not verdicts: the incumbent ladder is the best public sensor for what stats cannot see, and it is probabilistic. Guarantee share is the expiring deal structure; dead-weight risk concentrates where heavy guarantees meet career-year spikes.
Team fits are provisional and only appear for players in the top positional market tier. They use roster need, cap commitment, and recent team results. The model excludes the incumbent because re-signing is a different scenario.
Current deal
10.6% of cap
46% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
8.2% of cap
98% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Current deal
7.4% of cap
63% guaranteed
High dead-cap exposure
Own team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 37%
Expected output: 79%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 56%
Expected output: 75%
Current deal
6.2% of cap
46% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Current deal
5.6% of cap
53% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Current deal
5.3% of cap
41% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Current deal
5.0% of cap
86% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Current deal
4.8% of cap
79% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Current deal
4.5% of cap
95% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Current deal
4.3% of cap
64% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Current deal
3.9% of cap
66% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Current deal
3.8% of cap
95% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Current deal
3.8% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Current deal
3.7% of cap
78% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Current deal
3.6% of cap
87% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
3.6% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Current deal
3.5% of cap
52% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Current deal
3.1% of cap
64% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Current deal
2.7% of cap
40% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
2.5% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
2.3% of cap
51% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
TE decline step at 29-30 with the survival cliff behind it.
Current deal
2.3% of cap
56% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Edge rusher · Commanders · Age 37
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
2.2% of cap
82% guaranteed
High dead-cap exposure
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 37%
Expected output: 90%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 56%
Expected output: 85%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Career-year spike
Current deal
2.2% of cap
89% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Running back · Chargers · Age 28
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.9% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Post-26 workhorse: the role keeps its job while losing 18+ scrimmage yards a game per year.
Current deal
1.9% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Running back · Saints · Age 31
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.8% of cap
68% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
1.8% of cap
50% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Running back · Commanders · Age 31
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.7% of cap
50% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Post-26 workhorse: the role keeps its job while losing 18+ scrimmage yards a game per year.
Current deal
1.7% of cap
42% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Edge rusher · Titans · Age 27
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.6% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.5% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.4% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.4% of cap
62% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.4% of cap
38% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 37%
Expected output: 90%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 56%
Expected output: 85%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Career-year spike
Platform year is 1.34x his career base; spike-year external signings keep under 80% of it 56% of the time.
Current deal
1.4% of cap
28% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.4% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.4% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Edge rusher · Cowboys · Age 33
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.3% of cap
36% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Raiders · Age 32
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.3% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Running back · Chargers · Age 31
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.3% of cap
52% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Wide receiver · Steelers · Age 35
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.2% of cap
32% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
1.2% of cap
62% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Commanders · Age 30
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.2% of cap
76% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
1.2% of cap
74% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve · Team-dependent production
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28. 37% of platform production is conversion over earned opportunity; the gap fades about a third through a team change.
Current deal
1.2% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Chargers · Age 34
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.1% of cap
75% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Separator past 25: the quickness-dependent class declines hardest at 26 to 28.
Current deal
1.1% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
QB decline opens at 30-31; a long deal signed at 32+ lives inside it.
Current deal
1.1% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Chargers · Age 31
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.1% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Vertical past 28: the speed class hits its wall at 29.
Current deal
1.1% of cap
73% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Cornerback · Seahawks · Age 31
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.1% of cap
58% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.1% of cap
61% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Cornerback · Dolphins · Age 27
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
1.1% of cap
82% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.0% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
1.0% of cap
73% guaranteed
High dead-cap exposure
Own team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 37%
Expected output: 79%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 56%
Expected output: 75%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Career-year spike · Age curve
Current deal
1.0% of cap
48% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.9% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Quarterback · Chargers · Age 33
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.9% of cap
80% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
QB decline opens at 30-31; a long deal signed at 32+ lives inside it.
Wide receiver · Commanders · Age 31
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.9% of cap
16% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
0.9% of cap
32% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
TE decline step at 29-30 with the survival cliff behind it.
Wide receiver · Cardinals · Age 31
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.9% of cap
54% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
0.9% of cap
66% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.9% of cap
70% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
0.9% of cap
60% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.9% of cap
63% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.8% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.8% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Steelers · Age 34
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.7% of cap
37% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Separator past 25: the quickness-dependent class declines hardest at 26 to 28.
Current deal
0.7% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Even the graceful-aging seam class fades past 31.
Current deal
0.7% of cap
43% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Panthers · Age 30
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.7% of cap
42% guaranteed
Own team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 37%
Expected output: 79%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 56%
Expected output: 75%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Career-year spike · Age curve
Platform year is 1.48x his career base; spike-year external signings keep under 80% of it 56% of the time. Separator past 25: the quickness-dependent class declines hardest at 26 to 28.
Edge rusher · Commanders · Age 29
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.7% of cap
5% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Vikings · Age 26
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.7% of cap
13% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Running back · Raiders · Age 34
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.6% of cap
11% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.6% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Running back · Texans · Age 32
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.6% of cap
42% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.6% of cap
57% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.6% of cap
21% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.6% of cap
22% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.6% of cap
12% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.6% of cap
29% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.6% of cap
29% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Edge rusher · Cardinals · Age 28
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.6% of cap
17% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
12% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
4% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Browns · Age 33
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
54% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Separator past 25: the quickness-dependent class declines hardest at 26 to 28.
Wide receiver · Buccaneers · Age 33
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
33% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
12% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
36% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 37%
Expected output: 90%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 56%
Expected output: 85%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Career-year spike
Platform year is 1.58x his career base; spike-year external signings keep under 80% of it 56% of the time.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
6% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
1% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
TE decline step at 29-30 with the survival cliff behind it.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
6% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
70% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
13% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
7% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
100%+ guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
34% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
57% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
82% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 37%
Expected output: 79%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 56%
Expected output: 75%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Career-year spike · Age curve
Platform year is 2.73x his career base; spike-year external signings keep under 80% of it 56% of the time. TE decline step at 29-30 with the survival cliff behind it.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
6% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
3% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
Vertical past 28: the speed class hits its wall at 29.
Edge rusher · Eagles · Age 31
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Saints · Age 30
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve · Team-dependent production
Separator past 25: the quickness-dependent class declines hardest at 26 to 28. 33% of platform production is conversion over earned opportunity; the gap fades about a third through a team change.
Running back · Dolphins · Age 28
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
90% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
25% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
9% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Running back · Cowboys · Age 29
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
90% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Running back · Lions · Age 30
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
37% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
4% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
6% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
4% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Wide receiver · Dolphins · Age 29
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
Team-dependent production
31% of platform production is conversion over earned opportunity; the gap fades about a third through a team change.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
13% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Running back · Colts · Age 28
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
36% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 89%
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 84%
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
23% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
5% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
4% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
0% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
8% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Expected output: 99%
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Expected output: 95%
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Running back · Chargers · Age 26
New team risk
SevereMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
16% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Current deal
0.5% of cap
17% guaranteed
Own team risk
Elevated riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
Severe riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Market may be lower
Not projected
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
Cornerback · Ravens · Age 27
New team risk
HighMarket estimate
Market estimate pending
Current deal
0.5% of cap
17% guaranteed
Own team risk
Low riskHistorical drop rate: 24%
Output forecast unavailable
New team risk
High riskHistorical drop rate: 44%
Output forecast unavailable
Best team fits
Not projected
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Career-year spike · Age curve
Platform year is 1.37x his career base; spike-year external signings keep under 80% of it 56% of the time. RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28. Structure note: the expiring deal was majority-guaranteed; spike-year deals bought with heavy guarantees carried about 1.75x the dead-cap exposure of base-year deals in 2019-2023.
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Age curve
RB decline window: backs return the whole early-career climb by 28.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Age curve
TE decline step at 29-30 with the survival cliff behind it.
Age curve
Post-26 workhorse: the role keeps its job while losing 18+ scrimmage yards a game per year.
Age curve
QB decline opens at 30-31; a long deal signed at 32+ lives inside it.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Platform year is 1.47x his career base; spike-year external signings keep under 80% of it 56% of the time. Structure note: the expiring deal was majority-guaranteed; spike-year deals bought with heavy guarantees carried about 1.75x the dead-cap exposure of base-year deals in 2019-2023.
Age curve
Even the graceful-aging seam class fades past 31.
Age curve
WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it.
Age curve
Separator past 25: the quickness-dependent class declines hardest at 26 to 28.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.
Platform year is 1.30x his career base; spike-year external signings keep under 80% of it 56% of the time. WR cliff at 31-32: a multi-year deal crosses it. Structure note: the expiring deal was majority-guaranteed; spike-year deals bought with heavy guarantees carried about 1.75x the dead-cap exposure of base-year deals in 2019-2023.
No measured risk flags. The remaining risk is the part no public data can see; incumbency behavior is the best remaining signal.