The War Room · 2026
New Orleans Saints offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · cheap-vet
Cheap veteran bridge; the room stays in the market at every rung.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR | +3.7 | 50% | 0.5% | 27.8 | 42% | |
| 2 | LB | +3.1 | 45% | 1.1% | 32.0 | 26% | |
| 3 | ED | +1.8 | 60% | 3.4% | 30.2 | 29% | |
| 4 | CB | +1.2 | 63% | 0.5% | 25.6 | 40% | |
| 5 | RB | +1.1 | 58% | 0.3% | 26.6 | 17% | |
| 6 | TE | +0.8 | 57% | 1.9% | 29.9 | 9% | |
| 7 | OL | +0.4 | 66% | 1.9% | 25.9 | 39% | |
| 8 | QB | +0.1 | 100% | 0.7% | 26.6 | 19% | starter returns |
| 9 | IDL | -0.1 | 83% | 1.3% | 29.1 | 25% | |
| 10 | S | -2.0 | 92% | 1.7% | 25.9 | 10% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 4.8% | 79% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R3 comp | age-cliff |
| Chris Olave | WR | 2.3% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | R5 comp | |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | 1.8% | 68% | Elevated | R6 comp | age-cliff |
| Tyrann Mathieu | S | 1.4% | 100%+ | Low | R6 comp | |
| Dante Pettis | WR | 0.5% | 0% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | no comp | age-cliff, non-portable |
| Ugochukwu Amadi | CB | 0.5% | 9% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
| Tyquan Lewis | ED | IND | 2.3% | High | n/a |
| Darrell Taylor | ED | HOU | 1.7% | High | n/a |
| Jermaine Johnson II | ED | TEN | 1.6% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.