The War Room · 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · aging-vet
Aging veteran on big money: the highest QB-draft propensity state in football. Succession planning is live.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR | +2.1 | 54% | 4.3% | 28.6 | 42% | |
| 2 | S | +1.4 | 56% | 2.4% | 30.1 | 14% | starter returns |
| 3 | CB | +0.8 | 70% | 3.3% | 29.5 | 40% | |
| 4 | RB | +0.8 | 51% | 1.0% | 26.8 | 18% | |
| 5 | IDL | +0.4 | 64% | 0.6% | 28.6 | 17% | |
| 6 | TE | +0.3 | 63% | 1.6% | 27.6 | 9% | |
| 7 | QB | -0.3 | 100% | 21.6% | 40.8 | 26% | starter returns |
| 8 | OL | -1.2 | 82% | 0.8% | 26.7 | 32% | |
| 9 | LB | -2.5 | 93% | 2.4% | 26.4 | 17% | |
| 10 | ED | -3.8 | 90% | 8.8% | 28.9 | 22% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | TE | 4.3% | 64% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R4 comp | age-cliff |
| Darius Slay | CB | 3.6% | 87% | Low | R4 comp | |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | WR | 1.2% | 32% | Elevated | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Juan Thornhill | S | 1.1% | 61% | Low | R7 comp | |
| Robert Woods | WR | 0.7% | 37% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Harrison Smith | S | MIN | 3.7% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
| Jordan Whitehead | S | TB | 1.8% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.