The War Room · 2026
New York Giants offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OL | +2.7 | 54% | 2.4% | 30.0 | 56% | |
| 2 | WR | +2.2 | 42% | 1.4% | 26.5 | 42% | |
| 3 | TE | +1.3 | 54% | 0.3% | 26.5 | 15% | |
| 4 | S | -0.3 | 65% | 1.9% | 25.8 | 22% | |
| 5 | IDL | -0.9 | 78% | 3.7% | 29.5 | 17% | |
| 6 | QB | -1.2 | 100% | 5.7% | 26.9 | 9% | starter returns |
| 7 | CB | -1.4 | 73% | 2.0% | 25.2 | 29% | |
| 8 | RB | -2.0 | 100% | 0.9% | 26.3 | 12% | |
| 9 | LB | -2.6 | 99% | 3.0% | 28.4 | 17% | |
| 10 | ED | -4.5 | 76% | 5.4% | 25.3 | 22% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | QB | 3.8% | 95% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R4 comp | age-cliff |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | 3.8% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | R4 comp | |
| Zach Pascal | WR | 0.5% | 6% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
| Victor Dimukeje | ED | 0.5% | 13% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.