The War Room · 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IDL | +3.1 | 32% | 0.2% | 27.7 | 26% | |
| 2 | ED | +1.6 | 55% | 4.5% | 29.3 | 29% | |
| 3 | LB | +1.4 | 54% | 1.7% | 29.8 | 22% | |
| 4 | S | +1.2 | 60% | 0.8% | 28.0 | 22% | |
| 5 | CB | +1.0 | 57% | 1.8% | 27.2 | 29% | |
| 6 | RB | +0.3 | 42% | 0.2% | 25.4 | 17% | |
| 7 | TE | -0.6 | 85% | 0.7% | 27.4 | 9% | |
| 8 | QB | -2.1 | 100% | 20.9% | 26.2 | 9% | |
| 9 | WR | -2.5 | 75% | 2.1% | 25.6 | 25% | |
| 10 | OL | -3.3 | 100% | 3.5% | 27.1 | 32% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Ogbah | ED | 1.2% | 62% | Low | R7 comp | |
| Dawuane Smoot | ED | 0.5% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
| Tyquan Lewis | ED | IND | 2.3% | High | n/a |
| Darrell Taylor | ED | HOU | 1.7% | High | n/a |
| Jermaine Johnson II | ED | TEN | 1.6% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.