The War Room · 2026
Houston Texans offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IDL | +5.5 | 14% | 0.2% | 29.9 | 26% | |
| 2 | OL | +3.5 | 36% | 0.2% | 27.3 | 56% | |
| 3 | QB | +2.1 | 75% | 3.0% | 24.8 | 9% | |
| 4 | RB | +1.4 | 56% | 0.3% | 27.6 | 18% | |
| 5 | LB | -0.6 | 76% | 1.9% | 27.8 | 18% | |
| 6 | ED | -0.9 | 74% | 5.4% | 28.9 | 21% | |
| 7 | S | -1.2 | 79% | 0.8% | 25.2 | 11% | |
| 8 | WR | -1.7 | 83% | 2.8% | 26.0 | 25% | |
| 9 | TE | -1.8 | 87% | 3.1% | 28.8 | 8% | |
| 10 | CB | -3.4 | 87% | 4.4% | 25.6 | 26% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | RB | 3.9% | 66% | Elevated | R4 comp | age-cliff |
| Denico Autry | ED | 2.7% | 40% | Low | R5 comp | |
| Davis Mills | QB | 2.5% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | R5 comp | |
| Darrell Taylor | ED | 1.7% | 42% | Low | R6 comp | |
| Derek Barnett | ED | 1.4% | 38% | Elevated · ret 0.90 | R6 comp | career-year-spike |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 0.9% | 60% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Ronald Darby | CB | 0.7% | 43% | Low | no comp | |
| Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 0.6% | 42% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | no comp | age-cliff |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | 0.6% | 12% | Low | no comp | |
| Arthur Maulet | CB | 0.5% | 6% | Low | no comp | |
| Casey Toohill | ED | 0.5% | 4% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No scored free agents at the top need groups this class. | |||||
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.