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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · void
No starter under contract: void rooms buy veterans first and draft second.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QB | +2.8 | 0% | 0.0% | 25.0 | 19% | |
| 2 | OL | +2.6 | 41% | 1.0% | 28.7 | 56% | |
| 3 | WR | +2.4 | 35% | 1.5% | 26.1 | 34% | |
| 4 | TE | +1.8 | 50% | 0.4% | 29.6 | 15% | |
| 5 | ED | +0.3 | 45% | 6.8% | 29.2 | 21% | |
| 6 | IDL | +0.3 | 55% | 1.4% | 30.3 | 17% | |
| 7 | RB | -0.7 | 100% | 1.6% | 28.0 | 17% | |
| 8 | LB | -1.2 | 74% | 3.7% | 28.8 | 17% | |
| 9 | S | -2.1 | 100% | 1.6% | 25.9 | 10% | |
| 10 | CB | -3.1 | 100% | 5.3% | 25.9 | 26% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | RB | 3.9% | 66% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| Denico Autry | ED | 2.7% | 40% | Low | |
| Davis Mills | QB | 2.5% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | |
| Darrell Taylor | ED | 1.7% | 42% | Low | |
| Derek Barnett | ED | 1.4% |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.
| 38% |
| Elevated · ret 0.90 |
| career-year-spike |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 0.9% | 60% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Ronald Darby | CB | 0.7% | 43% | Low |
| Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 0.6% | 42% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | 0.6% | 12% | Low |
| Arthur Maulet | CB | 0.5% | 6% | Low |
| Casey Toohill | ED | 0.5% | 4% | Low |