The War Room · 2026
New York Jets offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ED | +2.9 | 47% | 0.6% | 27.1 | 29% | |
| 2 | QB | +2.4 | 76% | 3.6% | 28.5 | 9% | starter returns |
| 3 | RB | +2.1 | 32% | 0.1% | 24.8 | 18% | |
| 4 | S | +1.5 | 54% | 0.3% | 25.7 | 22% | |
| 5 | IDL | +1.3 | 51% | 2.0% | 27.6 | 17% | |
| 6 | WR | +0.8 | 64% | 2.3% | 26.3 | 39% | |
| 7 | LB | -0.1 | 59% | 2.5% | 27.1 | 18% | |
| 8 | CB | -1.3 | 81% | 3.0% | 26.4 | 26% | |
| 9 | TE | -2.2 | 82% | 1.1% | 24.6 | 8% | |
| 10 | OL | -3.1 | 79% | 1.5% | 25.4 | 32% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | WR | 1.0% | 73% | High · ret 0.79 | R7 comp | career-year-spike, age-cliff |
| Allen Lazard | WR | 0.9% | 70% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Kris Boyd | CB | 0.6% | 21% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 2.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Tyquan Lewis | ED | IND | 2.3% | High | n/a |
| Darrell Taylor | ED | HOU | 1.7% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.