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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · aging-vet
Aging veteran on big money: the highest QB-draft propensity state in football. Succession planning is live.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LB | +3.9 | 22% | 0.1% | 25.7 | 26% | |
| 2 | IDL | +1.7 | 39% | 3.5% | 29.0 | 26% | |
| 3 | WR | +0.8 | 62% | 4.1% | 27.1 | 34% | |
| 4 | RB | +0.5 | 69% | 1.9% | 27.1 | 18% | |
| 5 | CB | +0.0 | 69% | 4.0% | 27.7 | 29% | |
| 6 | TE | -1.6 | 79% | 3.0% | 28.0 | 9% | |
| 7 | QB | -1.7 | 100% | 23.5% | 34.0 | 26% | |
| 8 | OL | -1.8 | 80% | 2.2% | 26.4 | 32% | |
| 9 | ED | -4.0 | 96% | 2.8% | 26.4 | 22% | |
| 10 | S | -4.4 | 88% | 2.4% | 26.5 | 10% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Wilson | S | 3.1% | 64% | Low | |
| Jadeveon Clowney | ED | 1.3% | 36% | Low · ret 0.99 | |
| Israel Mukuamu | S | 0.6% | 29% | Low | |
| C.J. Goodwin | CB | 0.5% | 12% | Low | |
| Miles Sanders | RB | 0.5% |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.
| 90% |
| Elevated · ret 0.89 |
| age-cliff |