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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LB | +3.6 | 35% | 0.4% | 28.6 | 26% | |
| 2 | ED | +1.9 | 38% | 0.4% | 29.1 | 29% | |
| 3 | CB | +1.4 | 72% | 0.3% | 27.0 | 40% | |
| 4 | WR | +1.2 | 60% | 0.5% | 25.4 | 34% | |
| 5 | IDL | +0.4 | 72% | 1.2% | 29.3 | 17% | |
| 6 | TE | -0.3 | 73% | 1.4% | 27.8 | 9% | |
| 7 | S | -0.9 | 76% | 3.4% | 29.6 | 11% | |
| 8 | OL | -1.4 | 81% | 3.3% | 26.7 | 32% | |
| 9 | QB | -2.2 | 100% | 23.4% | 29.0 | 9% | |
| 10 | RB | -2.5 | 100% | 1.4% | 26.4 | 12% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | RB | 1.9% | 100%+ | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Bud Dupree | ED | 1.4% | 62% | Low · ret 0.99 | |
| Gus Edwards | RB | 1.3% | 52% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 1.1% | 75% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Mike Williams | WR |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.
| 1.1% |
| 100%+ |
| Elevated |
| age-cliff |
| Taylor Heinicke | QB | 0.9% | 80% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| Hassan Haskins | RB | 0.5% | 16% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| 4.5% |
| High |
| 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |