The War Room · 2026
Los Angeles Chargers offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ED | +3.6 | 41% | 0.3% | 28.3 | 29% | |
| 2 | S | +3.6 | 37% | 0.7% | 29.4 | 14% | |
| 3 | OL | +2.8 | 39% | 0.9% | 28.0 | 43% | |
| 4 | IDL | +1.6 | 53% | 0.3% | 27.1 | 31% | |
| 5 | TE | +0.3 | 67% | 0.5% | 26.0 | 9% | |
| 6 | CB | -0.0 | 83% | 0.8% | 26.5 | 29% | |
| 7 | LB | -0.1 | 79% | 0.6% | 28.3 | 18% | |
| 8 | WR | -0.4 | 79% | 0.8% | 26.4 | 25% | |
| 9 | QB | -1.1 | 91% | 21.4% | 27.8 | 9% | |
| 10 | RB | -3.6 | 77% | 0.7% | 24.7 | 12% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | RB | 1.9% | 100%+ | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R6 comp | age-cliff |
| Bud Dupree | ED | 1.4% | 62% | Low · ret 0.99 | R6 comp | |
| Gus Edwards | RB | 1.3% | 52% | Elevated | R6 comp | age-cliff |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 1.1% | 75% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Mike Williams | WR | 1.1% | 100%+ | Elevated | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Taylor Heinicke | QB | 0.9% | 80% | Elevated | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Hassan Haskins | RB | 0.5% | 16% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Harrison Smith | S | MIN | 3.7% | High | n/a |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.