The War Room · 2026
Kansas City Chiefs offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | +4.2 | 16% | 0.1% | 28.2 | 13% | |
| 2 | WR | +3.9 | 42% | 0.4% | 26.5 | 42% | |
| 3 | TE | +3.8 | 36% | 0.8% | 32.4 | 15% | |
| 4 | CB | +3.2 | 37% | 0.5% | 26.2 | 40% | |
| 5 | S | +1.3 | 60% | 0.3% | 26.2 | 11% | |
| 6 | IDL | +0.9 | 50% | 5.4% | 30.7 | 17% | |
| 7 | QB | -0.7 | 94% | 19.1% | 30.7 | 9% | |
| 8 | ED | -1.4 | 74% | 3.4% | 26.1 | 22% | |
| 9 | LB | -1.6 | 80% | 3.1% | 27.6 | 17% | |
| 10 | OL | -3.4 | 92% | 4.3% | 25.9 | 32% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazeeh Johnson | S | 1.2% | 0% | Low | R7 comp | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | 0.5% | 57% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | no comp | age-cliff |
| Mike Edwards | S | 0.5% | 37% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.