The War Room · 2026
Las Vegas Raiders offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · aging-vet
Aging veteran on big money: the highest QB-draft propensity state in football. Succession planning is live.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LB | +5.8 | 3% | 0.0% | 29.4 | 26% | starter returns |
| 2 | CB | +2.5 | 49% | 0.3% | 26.1 | 25% | |
| 3 | OL | +2.2 | 55% | 0.9% | 26.7 | 43% | |
| 4 | QB | +0.7 | 92% | 11.7% | 34.1 | 26% | |
| 5 | IDL | +0.4 | 70% | 0.7% | 27.5 | 17% | |
| 6 | ED | -0.2 | 63% | 5.9% | 28.0 | 21% | |
| 7 | WR | -0.7 | 86% | 1.6% | 26.3 | 39% | |
| 8 | TE | -0.8 | 76% | 1.1% | 25.3 | 8% | |
| 9 | S | -1.1 | 87% | 1.8% | 27.8 | 10% | starter returns |
| 10 | RB | -2.4 | 80% | 2.5% | 24.1 | 12% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | WR | 1.3% | 100%+ | Elevated | R6 comp | age-cliff |
| Raheem Mostert | RB | 0.6% | 11% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
| Zamir White | RB | 0.5% | 17% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.