The War Room · 2026
San Francisco 49ers offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | +4.0 | 31% | 0.4% | 31.2 | 13% | |
| 2 | WR | +3.5 | 58% | 1.0% | 29.3 | 42% | |
| 3 | IDL | +2.1 | 42% | 0.3% | 26.1 | 31% | |
| 4 | ED | +1.0 | 58% | 2.6% | 27.0 | 29% | |
| 5 | LB | -0.6 | 78% | 1.3% | 26.5 | 18% | |
| 6 | OL | -0.7 | 83% | 3.8% | 30.2 | 39% | |
| 7 | TE | -0.8 | 71% | 3.3% | 29.3 | 9% | |
| 8 | S | -0.8 | 83% | 0.5% | 25.0 | 10% | |
| 9 | QB | -0.9 | 100% | 10.4% | 27.0 | 9% | |
| 10 | CB | -2.7 | 96% | 3.6% | 25.8 | 26% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 7.4% | 63% | High · ret 0.79 | R3 comp | career-year-spike, age-cliff |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | 3.5% | 52% | Low | R4 comp | |
| Jordan Mason | RB | 1.9% | 0% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R6 comp | age-cliff |
| Tre Brown | CB | 0.6% | 29% | Low | no comp | |
| Fabian Moreau | CB | 0.5% | 34% | Low | no comp | |
| Ross Dwelley | TE | 0.5% | 0% | High · ret 0.79 | no comp | career-year-spike, age-cliff |
| Richie Grant | S | 0.5% | 23% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.