Loading
Loading the next page.
Loading
MBStatsLoading
Loading
The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ED | +3.7 | 6% | 0.0% | 29.8 | 29% | |
| 2 | OL | +3.5 | 41% | 3.1% | 30.1 | 56% | |
| 3 | QB | +2.6 | 22% | 0.1% | 30.8 | 9% | starter returns |
| 4 | LB | +2.1 | 52% | 0.2% | 26.2 | 22% | starter returns |
| 5 | S | +1.9 | 42% | 0.3% | 27.4 | 11% | |
| 6 | IDL | +1.5 | 51% | 0.3% | 26.3 | 17% | |
| 7 | TE | +1.4 | 42% | 1.9% | 28.6 | 9% | |
| 8 | CB | -0.3 | 79% | 2.7% | 28.3 | 26% | |
| 9 | RB | -0.8 | 63% | 4.6% | 26.1 | 12% | |
| 10 | WR | -1.2 | 86% | 4.7% | 27.0 | 25% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Floyd | ED | 3.6% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | |
| Mike Ford | CB | 1.4% | 28% | Low | |
| Kevin King | CB | 0.5% | 13% | Low | |
| D.J. Chark | WR | 0.5% | 3% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| Jordan Fuller | S | 0.5% |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.
| 6% |
| Low |
| 3.5% |
| High |
| n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 2.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Tyquan Lewis | ED | IND | 2.3% | High | n/a |
| Darrell Taylor | ED | HOU | 1.7% | High | n/a |
| Jermaine Johnson II | ED | TEN | 1.6% | High | 0.95 |