The War Room · 2026
Atlanta Falcons offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR | +3.7 | 45% | 1.6% | 27.7 | 42% | |
| 2 | LB | +2.5 | 46% | 0.9% | 29.4 | 26% | |
| 3 | IDL | +1.6 | 49% | 0.4% | 27.8 | 31% | |
| 4 | TE | +1.1 | 34% | 0.5% | 26.1 | 15% | |
| 5 | CB | -0.1 | 73% | 3.5% | 28.1 | 29% | |
| 6 | ED | -0.7 | 54% | 0.8% | 26.2 | 21% | |
| 7 | OL | -0.7 | 80% | 3.9% | 29.8 | 39% | |
| 8 | RB | -1.3 | 72% | 1.7% | 24.6 | 12% | |
| 9 | QB | -1.6 | 100% | 9.8% | 31.9 | 9% | |
| 10 | S | -3.0 | 90% | 3.1% | 26.4 | 10% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Floyd | ED | 3.6% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | R4 comp | |
| Mike Ford | CB | 1.4% | 28% | Low | R6 comp | |
| Kevin King | CB | 0.5% | 13% | Low | no comp | |
| D.J. Chark | WR | 0.5% | 3% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
| Jordan Fuller | S | 0.5% | 6% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.