The War Room · 2026
Detroit Lions offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CB | +1.6 | 43% | 1.1% | 28.0 | 25% | |
| 2 | LB | +0.8 | 63% | 1.4% | 28.2 | 26% | |
| 3 | TE | +0.5 | 66% | 0.9% | 27.3 | 15% | |
| 4 | ED | +0.3 | 52% | 8.4% | 28.1 | 29% | |
| 5 | RB | +0.1 | 61% | 1.2% | 25.9 | 17% | |
| 6 | IDL | -0.1 | 55% | 2.5% | 27.5 | 17% | |
| 7 | OL | -0.8 | 67% | 3.7% | 28.3 | 39% | |
| 8 | QB | -1.3 | 98% | 20.5% | 31.0 | 9% | |
| 9 | S | -3.0 | 91% | 2.6% | 24.7 | 10% | |
| 10 | WR | -3.3 | 85% | 7.4% | 26.2 | 25% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Davenport | ED | 0.9% | 66% | Low | R7 comp | |
| Josh Paschal | ED | 0.9% | 63% | Low | R7 comp | |
| Pat O'Connor | ED | 0.5% | 7% | Low | no comp | |
| Craig Reynolds | RB | 0.5% | 0% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.