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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | +2.4 | 45% | 0.2% | 26.8 | 13% | |
| 2 | ED | +2.1 | 39% | 2.1% | 28.4 | 29% | |
| 3 | S | +1.9 | 41% | 0.9% | 28.2 | 22% | |
| 4 | IDL | +1.8 | 49% | 2.2% | 29.9 | 31% | |
| 5 | CB | +0.3 | 84% | 1.4% | 28.5 | 29% | |
| 6 | WR | +0.1 | 74% | 4.8% | 28.9 | 39% | |
| 7 | QB | +0.1 | 77% | 2.9% | 27.6 | 9% | |
| 8 | OL | -0.8 | 80% | 2.1% | 27.3 | 32% | |
| 9 | TE | -2.4 | 100% | 1.9% | 27.1 | 8% | |
| 10 | LB | -5.2 | 100% | 2.8% | 23.7 | 17% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | 10.6% | 46% | Low | |
| Von Miller | ED | 2.2% | 82% | Elevated · ret 0.90 | career-year-spike |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 2.2% | 89% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 1.7% | 50% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.
| Noah Brown | WR | 1.2% | 76% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Jamal Agnew | WR | 0.9% | 16% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| Percy Butler | S | 0.8% | 100%+ | Low |
| Clelin Ferrell | ED | 0.7% | 5% | Low |
| 3.8% |
| High |
| 0.95 |
| Harrison Smith | S | MIN | 3.7% | High | n/a |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |