The War Room · 2026
Washington Commanders offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QB | +5.0 | 38% | 1.4% | 30.4 | 9% | |
| 2 | WR | +3.9 | 38% | 1.8% | 29.1 | 42% | |
| 3 | CB | +2.0 | 51% | 0.4% | 27.4 | 40% | |
| 4 | RB | +0.9 | 65% | 0.3% | 27.3 | 18% | |
| 5 | TE | +0.8 | 60% | 1.0% | 29.8 | 9% | |
| 6 | S | +0.8 | 70% | 0.8% | 28.3 | 11% | |
| 7 | OL | +0.8 | 60% | 1.8% | 27.4 | 39% | |
| 8 | ED | +0.6 | 72% | 3.7% | 31.1 | 22% | |
| 9 | IDL | -1.1 | 69% | 4.0% | 28.6 | 25% | |
| 10 | LB | -2.0 | 100% | 3.7% | 33.3 | 17% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | 10.6% | 46% | Low | R3 comp | |
| Von Miller | ED | 2.2% | 82% | Elevated · ret 0.90 | R5 comp | career-year-spike |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 2.2% | 89% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R5 comp | age-cliff |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | 1.7% | 50% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R6 comp | age-cliff |
| Noah Brown | WR | 1.2% | 76% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Jamal Agnew | WR | 0.9% | 16% | Elevated | R7 comp | age-cliff |
| Percy Butler | S | 0.8% | 100%+ | Low | no comp | |
| Clelin Ferrell | ED | 0.7% | 5% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 2.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.