The War Room · 2026
Chicago Bears offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S | +4.9 | 20% | 0.7% | 29.6 | 14% | |
| 2 | CB | +3.1 | 40% | 1.2% | 27.3 | 25% | |
| 3 | IDL | +0.5 | 62% | 1.7% | 29.0 | 31% | |
| 4 | ED | -2.1 | 78% | 5.1% | 27.4 | 29% | |
| 5 | QB | -2.3 | 100% | 3.9% | 24.0 | 9% | |
| 6 | RB | -2.6 | 98% | 1.9% | 25.7 | 17% | |
| 7 | WR | -2.6 | 78% | 4.5% | 26.6 | 39% | |
| 8 | LB | -2.9 | 88% | 4.1% | 27.7 | 17% | |
| 9 | OL | -2.9 | 88% | 4.0% | 27.6 | 32% | |
| 10 | TE | -5.0 | 83% | 3.4% | 25.7 | 8% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | TE | 2.3% | 51% | Elevated | R5 comp | age-cliff |
| Nick McCloud | CB | 0.5% | 4% | Low | no comp | |
| Trestan Ebner | RB | 0.5% | 4% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Harrison Smith | S | MIN | 3.7% | High | n/a |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Jordan Whitehead | S | TB | 1.8% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.