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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ED | +4.0 | 19% | 0.3% | 28.0 | 29% | |
| 2 | TE | +2.1 | 35% | 0.2% | 26.0 | 22% | starter returns |
| 3 | S | -0.1 | 73% | 0.3% | 25.7 | 22% | |
| 4 | LB | -0.9 | 76% | 2.2% | 27.3 | 22% | |
| 5 | QB | -1.0 | 100% | 7.5% | 28.0 | 9% | starter returns |
| 6 | WR | -1.5 | 98% | 0.5% | 24.5 | 39% | |
| 7 | CB | -2.0 | 79% | 0.8% | 24.2 | 29% | |
| 8 | OL | -2.4 | 80% | 1.9% | 25.4 | 32% | |
| 9 | RB | -2.5 | 100% | 3.5% | 24.7 | 12% | |
| 10 | IDL | -4.5 | 100% | 2.7% | 26.0 | 25% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Judon | ED | 1.1% | 0% | Low · ret 0.99 | |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | CB | 1.1% | 82% | Low | |
| Darren Waller | TE | 0.7% | 0% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Rasul Douglas | CB | 0.6% | 0% | Low | |
| Mike Hilton | CB | 0.5% |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.
| 12% |
| Low |
| Artie Burns | CB | 0.5% | 0% | Low |
| Pharaoh Brown | TE | 0.5% | 1% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | 0.5% | 90% | Elevated | age-cliff |
| Quinton Bell | ED | 0.5% | 25% | Low |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | WR | 0.5% | 0% | Low · ret 0.99 | non-portable |
| 3.8% |
| High |
| 0.95 |
| Harrison Smith | S | MIN | 3.7% | High | n/a |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |