The War Room · 2026
Miami Dolphins offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CB | +6.0 | 14% | 0.1% | 28.5 | 25% | |
| 2 | TE | +5.1 | 4% | 0.0% | 27.9 | 22% | |
| 3 | OL | +1.1 | 58% | 0.8% | 26.0 | 43% | |
| 4 | S | -0.1 | 63% | 2.6% | 27.8 | 22% | |
| 5 | RB | -0.4 | 74% | 0.4% | 25.2 | 17% | |
| 6 | ED | -0.5 | 56% | 4.0% | 28.6 | 21% | |
| 7 | WR | -0.8 | 80% | 4.4% | 27.5 | 39% | |
| 8 | LB | -1.3 | 87% | 2.0% | 27.9 | 17% | |
| 9 | QB | -1.3 | 97% | 16.5% | 27.1 | 9% | |
| 10 | IDL | -3.2 | 81% | 2.9% | 25.9 | 25% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Judon | ED | 1.1% | 0% | Low · ret 0.99 | R7 comp | |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | CB | 1.1% | 82% | Low | R7 comp | |
| Darren Waller | TE | 0.7% | 0% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | no comp | age-cliff |
| Rasul Douglas | CB | 0.6% | 0% | Low | no comp | |
| Mike Hilton | CB | 0.5% | 12% | Low | no comp | |
| Artie Burns | CB | 0.5% | 0% | Low | no comp | |
| Pharaoh Brown | TE | 0.5% | 1% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
| Alexander Mattison | RB | 0.5% | 90% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
| Quinton Bell | ED | 0.5% | 25% | Low | no comp | |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | WR | 0.5% | 0% | Low · ret 0.99 | no comp | non-portable |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.