The War Room · 2026
Tennessee Titans offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ED | +3.9 | 41% | 0.2% | 28.5 | 29% | |
| 2 | CB | +3.3 | 35% | 1.1% | 27.0 | 25% | |
| 3 | WR | +1.5 | 66% | 1.1% | 26.8 | 34% | |
| 4 | TE | +1.4 | 50% | 0.2% | 25.7 | 15% | |
| 5 | IDL | +0.9 | 46% | 3.3% | 28.5 | 17% | |
| 6 | OL | -1.2 | 72% | 2.9% | 28.2 | 39% | |
| 7 | S | -1.6 | 86% | 2.3% | 28.3 | 11% | |
| 8 | QB | -1.8 | 95% | 4.2% | 24.5 | 9% | |
| 9 | RB | -2.0 | 96% | 1.9% | 27.4 | 12% | |
| 10 | LB | -2.2 | 99% | 1.5% | 26.1 | 17% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Johnson II | ED | 1.6% | 100%+ | Low · ret 0.99 | R6 comp | |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | 1.4% | 87% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R6 comp | age-cliff |
| Quandre Diggs | S | 0.5% | 4% | Low | no comp | |
| Jihad Ward | ED | 0.5% | 36% | Elevated · ret 0.90 | no comp | career-year-spike |
| Lorenzo Carter | ED | 0.5% | 6% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.