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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | +5.2 | 0% | 0.0% | 31.2 | 13% | |
| 2 | ED | +1.4 | 49% | 2.4% | 30.5 | 29% | |
| 3 | IDL | +1.2 | 51% | 2.0% | 30.0 | 31% | |
| 4 | CB | +1.2 | 58% | 0.6% | 27.0 | 40% | |
| 5 | TE | +0.4 | 66% | 2.0% | 30.3 | 9% | |
| 6 | WR | +0.1 | 80% | 2.7% | 27.6 | 39% | |
| 7 | LB | -1.0 | 62% | 5.5% | 28.5 | 18% | |
| 8 | OL | -1.5 | 80% | 2.5% | 27.6 | 32% | |
| 9 | QB | -2.1 | 100% | 23.1% | 30.0 | 9% | |
| 10 | S | -5.0 | 100% | 4.1% | 26.3 | 10% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 1.8% | 100%+ | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Kyle Van Noy | ED | 1.5% | 0% | Low · ret 0.99 | |
| Justice Hill | RB | 1.2% | 74% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff, non-portable |
| Jalyn Armour-Davis | CB | 0.5% | 17% | Low |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.
| 3.6% |
| High |
| 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
| Tyquan Lewis | ED | IND | 2.3% | High | n/a |
| Darrell Taylor | ED | HOU | 1.7% | High | n/a |
| Jermaine Johnson II | ED | TEN | 1.6% | High | 0.95 |