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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | +4.0 | 27% | 0.1% | 28.8 | 13% | |
| 2 | QB | +3.7 | 0% | 0.0% | 33.6 | 9% | starter returns |
| 3 | LB | +3.4 | 40% | 1.0% | 32.1 | 22% | |
| 4 | CB | +2.2 | 58% | 2.9% | 29.3 | 40% | |
| 5 | TE | +1.8 | 48% | 1.3% | 30.0 | 9% | |
| 6 | WR | +0.7 | 52% | 5.6% | 26.8 | 39% | |
| 7 | ED | -0.1 | 59% | 0.7% | 27.3 | 21% | |
| 8 | S | -0.5 | 82% | 2.3% | 30.0 | 10% | |
| 9 | IDL | -0.9 | 63% | 0.5% | 26.3 | 25% | |
| 10 | OL | -2.6 | 80% | 5.2% | 28.6 | 32% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | 8.2% | 98% | Low · ret 0.99 | |
| Harrison Smith | S | 3.7% | 78% | Low | |
| Jeff Okudah | CB | 0.8% | 100%+ | Low | |
| Rondale Moore | WR | 0.7% | 13% | Low |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 2.5% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.