The War Room · 2026
Minnesota Vikings offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QB | +1.8 | 70% | 1.2% | 26.4 | 9% | starter returns |
| 2 | S | +1.1 | 67% | 1.8% | 30.5 | 14% | |
| 3 | LB | +0.4 | 38% | 1.1% | 30.1 | 22% | |
| 4 | WR | -0.1 | 64% | 5.2% | 26.7 | 34% | |
| 5 | IDL | -0.3 | 70% | 3.8% | 29.3 | 17% | |
| 6 | RB | -0.7 | 77% | 2.1% | 29.6 | 17% | |
| 7 | ED | -0.8 | 74% | 2.4% | 26.7 | 21% | |
| 8 | OL | -0.9 | 74% | 2.9% | 27.9 | 32% | |
| 9 | CB | -1.1 | 87% | 3.7% | 28.3 | 26% | |
| 10 | TE | -3.1 | 91% | 4.7% | 28.5 | 8% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | 8.2% | 98% | Low · ret 0.99 | R3 comp | |
| Harrison Smith | S | 3.7% | 78% | Low | R4 comp | |
| Jeff Okudah | CB | 0.8% | 100%+ | Low | no comp | |
| Rondale Moore | WR | 0.7% | 13% | Low | no comp |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 2.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Jordan Whitehead | S | TB | 1.8% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.