The War Room · 2026
Cincinnati Bengals offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QB | +5.7 | 43% | 10.5% | 33.7 | 9% | |
| 2 | CB | +2.7 | 46% | 0.3% | 26.0 | 25% | |
| 3 | S | +1.9 | 50% | 0.3% | 26.0 | 22% | |
| 4 | TE | +0.9 | 64% | 1.2% | 29.5 | 15% | |
| 5 | ED | +0.6 | 51% | 0.7% | 25.5 | 21% | |
| 6 | OL | +0.1 | 66% | 1.8% | 27.7 | 39% | |
| 7 | RB | -1.2 | 100% | 0.5% | 27.4 | 17% | |
| 8 | IDL | -2.1 | 94% | 2.2% | 28.1 | 25% | |
| 9 | LB | -2.7 | 97% | 1.2% | 26.4 | 17% | |
| 10 | WR | -3.7 | 90% | 7.7% | 26.4 | 25% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daxton Hill | CB | 1.4% | 100%+ | Low | R6 comp | |
| Zack Moss | RB | 0.6% | 22% | Elevated | no comp | age-cliff |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshon Lattimore | CB | WAS | 10.6% | High | n/a |
| James Bradberry | CB | PHI | 5.6% | High | n/a |
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Harrison Smith | S | MIN | 3.7% | High | n/a |
| Darius Slay | CB | PIT | 3.6% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 2.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Jordan Whitehead | S | TB | 1.8% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.