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The War Room · 2027
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · franchise-vet
Franchise veteran on a market deal; the room is settled.
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR | +5.6 | 17% | 1.6% | 29.7 | 42% | |
| 2 | IDL | +5.1 | 5% | 0.0% | 31.9 | 26% | |
| 3 | LB | +3.8 | 27% | 0.1% | 28.6 | 22% | starter returns |
| 4 | OL | -0.7 | 79% | 2.1% | 27.4 | 43% | |
| 5 | TE | -1.3 | 63% | 1.2% | 27.6 | 9% | |
| 6 | QB | -1.4 | 100% | 14.6% | 30.0 | 9% | |
| 7 | ED | -1.7 | 88% | 1.7% | 27.5 | 21% | |
| 8 | CB | -2.4 | 92% | 5.8% | 27.1 | 26% | |
| 9 | S | -2.7 | 99% | 2.3% | 26.1 | 10% | starter returns |
| 10 | RB | -3.1 | 100% | 6.7% | 27.7 | 12% |
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band. Contract structure and measured risk flags stay visible beside it.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 6.2% | 46% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
| Tyquan Lewis | ED | 2.3% | 56% | Low | |
| Xavien Howard | CB | 1.0% | 0% | Low | |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | 0.5% | 36% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | age-cliff |
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 2.3% | High | 0.95 |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.