The War Room · 2026
Indianapolis Colts offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · young-ascending
Young ascending starter on a rookie deal; the room is settled and QB drops off the need board.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | +4.4 | 7% | 0.0% | 27.2 | 13% | |
| 2 | IDL | +2.3 | 37% | 1.9% | 31.0 | 26% | |
| 3 | LB | +1.3 | 52% | 2.1% | 29.4 | 22% | |
| 4 | OL | +1.0 | 63% | 1.9% | 27.3 | 43% | |
| 5 | QB | +1.0 | 84% | 12.7% | 30.7 | 9% | starter returns |
| 6 | ED | +0.8 | 52% | 0.6% | 26.8 | 21% | |
| 7 | S | +0.4 | 51% | 2.6% | 26.4 | 11% | |
| 8 | WR | -0.0 | 69% | 3.3% | 26.5 | 25% | |
| 9 | CB | -1.0 | 90% | 2.9% | 28.2 | 26% | |
| 10 | TE | -1.4 | 58% | 1.1% | 27.0 | 8% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 6.2% | 46% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | R3 comp | age-cliff |
| Tyquan Lewis | ED | 2.3% | 56% | Low | R5 comp | |
| Xavien Howard | CB | 1.0% | 0% | Low | R7 comp | |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | 0.5% | 36% | Elevated · ret 0.89 | no comp | age-cliff |
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No scored free agents at the top need groups this class. | |||||
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.