The War Room · 2026
New England Patriots offseason brief
The roster state the front office faced entering the offseason, reconstructed from last season's snaps and the contract ledger. Needs predict behavior; the risk bands are odds, never verdicts.
QB room · cheap-vet
Cheap veteran bridge; the room stays in the market at every rung.
Need board
Ten position groups ranked against the other 31 teams. Draft prior is the measured chance a team in this need state spends a top-100 pick there; corner priors deliberately ignore rank because corner drafting is need-insensitive, and the QB prior reads the room class above.
| Rank | Group | Need | Returning snaps | Cap committed | Age | Draft prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S | +1.2 | 61% | 0.8% | 27.1 | 14% | |
| 2 | TE | +0.5 | 69% | 1.9% | 30.3 | 22% | |
| 3 | ED | +0.2 | 67% | 3.2% | 27.9 | 29% | |
| 4 | QB | -0.5 | 100% | 3.5% | 24.3 | 19% | |
| 5 | LB | -0.6 | 77% | 2.2% | 28.3 | 18% | |
| 6 | WR | -1.5 | 100% | 2.4% | 28.1 | 39% | |
| 7 | OL | -1.8 | 92% | 3.0% | 28.2 | 39% | |
| 8 | IDL | -2.3 | 85% | 4.3% | 27.0 | 25% | |
| 9 | RB | -2.6 | 97% | 2.1% | 25.8 | 12% | |
| 10 | CB | -2.7 | 100% | 3.8% | 26.6 | 26% |
Own expiring contracts
Keep is the incumbent re-sign band; walk is the projected compensatory selection his departure earns two drafts out, gross of the net-loss formula.
| Player | Pos | Expiring cap | Gtd | Keep | Walk | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No expiring contracts in the scored class. | ||||||
Market targets
Free agents at this team's top-3 need groups, screened to external-buy bands below Severe. External buys keep under 80% of platform production 43% of the time; the band prices that ladder.
| Player | Pos | From | Expiring cap | External band | Forecast retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Van Ginkel | ED | MIN | 8.2% | High | 0.95 |
| Grant Delpit | S | CLE | 5.3% | High | n/a |
| Haason Reddick | ED | TB | 5.0% | High | 0.95 |
| Joey Bosa | ED | BUF | 4.5% | High | 0.95 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | ED | NYG | 3.8% | High | 0.95 |
| Harrison Smith | S | MIN | 3.7% | High | n/a |
| Leonard Floyd | ED | ATL | 3.6% | High | 0.95 |
| Yetur Gross-Matos | ED | SF | 3.5% | High | n/a |
| Donovan Wilson | S | DAL | 3.1% | High | n/a |
| Denico Autry | ED | HOU | 2.7% | High | n/a |
Built from the team needs ledger (validated against ten years of revealed draft and free-agency behavior) and the second-contract risk model. Odds, not verdicts. Browse the full free-agency class or return to the team page.