The Ledger
Sealed predictions, graded in public
Every claim below was frozen at commit time and is never edited after sealing. Each carries a grading date fixed in advance, and misses publish alongside hits.
- Sealed claims
- 6
- Pending
- 6
- Due for grading
- 0
- Graded
- 0
Sealed 2026-07
Frozen at commit time; never edited after sealing. Each claim carries its grading date and metric. Grades append to a separate results file; misses publish alongside hits.
| Claim | Sealed | Grades after | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SCV 2026 Retention For the 2026 signings below, two-season retention of platform-year portable production follows the SCV v2/v3 forecasts: the below-80 rate lands within 10pp of each anchorRate cell, and the mean per-player forecast error (expectedRetention vs realized) beats the no-model baseline of predicting 1.0 for everyone. below-80 rate by anchor cell vs anchorRate; MAE(expectedRetention, realized retention) vs MAE(1.0, realized) 63 signings sealed | 2026-07-25 | 2028-02-15 | PENDING | awaiting data |
Kicker Mean Reversion Kicker FG% over expected is ~noise (measured yoy r = .034). 2026 FGOE for the kickers below will regress essentially to zero: predicted 2026 FGOE = 0.034 x 2025 FGOE for every kicker. The 2025 top-quintile group will NOT outkick the 2025 bottom-quintile group by more than 1.5pp of FGOE in 2026. corr(fgoe_2025, fgoe_2026); group gap top-vs-bottom quintile; MAE of the 0.034-slope forecast vs a persistence (slope 1.0) forecast 30 kickers sealed | 2026-07-25 | 2027-02-15 | PENDING | awaiting data |
Age Cliff 2026 Among the claim-1 players, the age-cliff-flagged group goes below 80% retention at a rate at least 10pp higher than unflagged players on the same rung (incumbent or external). below-80 rate, flagged vs unflagged, within rung | 2026-07-25 | 2028-02-15 | PENDING | awaiting data |
R1 Need Reach 2026 2026 first-round picks that landed in the drafting team top-3 need groups (team_need_season 2026) will trail 2026 R1 BPA picks in three-year-starter rate by at least 5pp, despite inheriting more snaps (measured historical gap -12.9pp with controls). seasons_started >= 3 by 2029, need-top3 vs rest of R1, from draft_picks | 2026-07-25 | 2029-06-01 | PENDING | awaiting data |
Scheme Sorting 2027 External CB/S/LB signings in the 2027 offseason will correlate at r >= .10 (within-season z-grain) between the player prior man exposure and the signing team prior man rate. Sourcing stays scheme-sorted; it will NOT anticipate 2027 scheme changes better than it matches 2026 schemes. corr(player man_share_z t-1, signer man_z t-1) on 2027 externals 1%+ | 2026-07-25 | 2027-04-01 | PENDING | awaiting data |
Punter Over Kicker 2026 Punter EPA-per-punt persistence (2025 to 2026, 30+ punts) exceeds kicker FGOE persistence (20+ kicks) by at least .10 of correlation. r_yoy(punter epa) - r_yoy(kicker fgoe) | 2026-07-25 | 2027-02-15 | PENDING | awaiting data |
Several claims price the models behind the free-agency class. The ledger files live in the repo under packages/stats/predictions, so the git history is the timestamp.