Player / QB
Davis Mills
Regular season production, 2021 through 2025.
- Position
- QB
- Team
- HOU
- Seasons
- 2021-2025
- Games
- 43
- 2025 Altitude
- 34Turbulence
2025 Flight Log
Altitude is EPA per dropback with the luck taken out: interception plays priced as incompletions, sack-fumbles as clean sacks, shown as the historical percentile of every qualifying QB game since 2016. The band is the claim; differences between adjacent bands are often noise.
W9
18
Turbulence
W10
57
Level
W11
36
Turbulence
W12
24
Turbulence
Season mean Altitude 34 across 4 qualifying games. Rushing identity is not graded here; his baseline is 10 rushing yards a game.
Tracking profile
Time to throw and aggressiveness are style axes that sit beside the Altitude score, never replace it; CPOE is the tracking-model completion skill.
Time to throw
Headline2.57s
QB median 2.80s
Track spans the middle 90% of 64 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
Aggressiveness
21%
QB median 15%
Track spans the middle 90% of 64 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
Air yards to sticks
-0.0 yd
QB median -1.1 yd
Track spans the middle 90% of 64 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
CPOE
-1.1
QB median -0.4
Track spans the middle 90% of 64 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
Time to throw by season
2021
2.65s
2022
2.78s
2023
2.69s
2024
2.60s
2025
2.57s
League tracking aggregates; NFL-qualified weeks only.
Charting profile
Accuracy and pressure rates persist year over year (.43 to .48) but add nothing to predicting future clean EPA, so none of them enters the Altitude score; read them as style and environment.
Bad throw rate
Headline19.0%
QB median 15.9%
Track spans the middle 90% of 56 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
On-target rate
70.6%
QB median 74.0%
Track spans the middle 90% of 56 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
Pressure rate
16.0%
QB median 21.6%
Track spans the middle 90% of 56 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
Pocket time
2.20s
QB median 2.40s
Track spans the middle 90% of 56 qualified seasons; the notch is the median.
Bad throw rate by season
2021
17.4%
2022
23.2%
2025
19.0%
ESPN QBR, 2025 average
44.8across 4 games
ESPN QBR shown as a benchmark. On identical frames, the Altitude score is steadier game to game (.517 vs .470 split-half).
PFR advanced charting, 2018 onward; qualified seasons only.
2025 / QB
Position profile
Season splits from pre-aggregated charting views. Missing datasets stay hidden.
2025 percentiles
Against every qualifying QB season in 2025. Metrics below their sample minimum say so instead of pretending.
EPA per dropback
Below the 200 dropbacks minimum in 2025.
CPOE
6thpercentile
42 qualifying seasons
Yards per attempt
6thpercentile
42 qualifying seasons
Career, season by season
Regular season only. Column definitions live in the glossary and at /explore.
| Season | Team | G | Att | Cmp | Pass yds | TD | INT | EPA per dropback | CPOE | Y/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | HOU | 6 | 159 | 91 | 915 | 5 | 1 | -0.10 | -6.61 | 5.75 |
| 2024 | HOU | 4 | 36 | 20 | 212 | 0 | 0 | -0.14 | -11.72 | 5.89 |
| 2023 | HOU | 5 | 39 | 18 | 173 | 2 | 0 | -0.12 | -19.54 | 4.44 |
| 2022 | HOU | 15 | 479 | 292 | 3118 | 17 | 15 | -0.15 | -3.78 | 6.51 |
| 2021 | HOU | 13 | 394 | 263 | 2664 | 16 | 10 | -0.10 | -0.22 | 6.76 |
2025 situational splits
Dropback production by situation bucket. Small buckets are noisy; check anything surprising with a test in the builder.
| Situation | Dropbacks | EPA per dropback | Success rate | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun | 134 | -0.16 | 0.37 | -7.06 |
| Home | 120 | -0.14 | 0.36 | -9.08 |
| Trailing | 95 | 0.10 | 0.46 | -2.52 |
| 1st down & long | 55 | 0.08 | 0.44 | -8.42 |
| Away | 49 | 0.01 | 0.49 | -0.55 |
| Leading | 42 | -0.29 | 0.31 | -10.42 |
| 2nd down & long | 35 | -0.19 | 0.31 | -19.56 |
| Neutral | 32 | -0.44 | 0.31 | -14.31 |
| Red zone | 30 | -0.06 | 0.37 | -5.54 |
| Two minute | 30 | 0.18 | 0.40 | -1.49 |
| 3rd down & medium | 21 | -0.91 | 0.24 | -12.17 |
| 2nd down & medium | 20 | 0.32 | 0.55 | 3.77 |
| 3rd down & long | 20 | -0.17 | 0.25 | 15.39 |
| 3rd down & short | 7 | 0.15 | 0.57 | -12.07 |
| 2nd down & short | 6 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 20.27 |
| No huddle | 5 | 0.23 | 0.60 | -5.63 |
| 4th down & short | 2 | -1.53 | 0.50 | 24.03 |
| 4th down & medium | 1 | -2.54 | 0.00 | -75.50 |
Data refreshed 1 day ago. Built on data from the nflverse project.