How we got there: What actually drives receiving production

We asked: receiving yards factor exactly into routes, targets per route, and yards per target. Which part matters?

The sample is 977 receiver seasons of 300 or more routes, all in the public receiver_skill_season view. The cell below runs the live association between targets per route run and yards per route run: earning the ball is most of producing with it.

The decomposition is scripted: the same-season variance shares (33 percent earning, 18 conversion, 17 playing time, 19 the covariance where coaches bench and start on earning), the next-season correlations (.56 earning, .38 routes, .31 conversion), and the swing decomposition need a season self-join and a variance harness. Spec and results in the article backtest block; every input column ships in this view.