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A living notebook by Riel St. Amand
The reproducible trail for the gap. Built on the public wr_altitude_week view: delivered minus earned, printed weekly for every receiver since 2016.
Every cell re-runs in your browser against current data. Covers 1999 through 2025. Data refreshed 1 day ago.
We asked: when a receiver delivers more than his role paid, whose stat is that?
The gap is delivered receiving yards minus earned yards, one row per receiver week in the public wr_altitude_week view. The cell below runs the live association between earned and delivered across every 2025 receiver week; the vertical spread around that relationship is the gap itself.
Rigor check
Earned yards against Receiving yards
Pearson correlation, re-run in your browser on current data.
The anatomy needs joins: the gap's coupling with its own team's passing efficiency (.428, about eight times tighter than earned yards), its year-over-year persistence (.336 for stayers, .155 for movers), and the joint model where prior earned carries .71 while the gap carries .61 and drops to .45 on a team change all require season self-joins and a team-quality merge. Spec and results in the article backtest block; the weekly rows here are the raw material.
Built on data from the nflverse project.