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A living notebook by Riel St. Amand
The reproducible trail for the college-production null. Final college seasons and draft age ship in the public combine_career view.
Every cell re-runs in your browser against current data. Covers 1999 through 2025. Data refreshed 1 day ago.
We asked: does college production know anything the draft slot does not?
The public combine_career view now carries each drafted athlete's final college season (receptions, yards, carries, usage, PPA) and his age on draft day, next to whole-career NFL outcomes. Coverage starts with the 2015 class and reaches CFBD-linked skill-position players; null means unlinked, a missingness the article names. The cells below run the combine-attendee slice live; the published run used every drafted college player, spec in the backtest block.
The raw translation exists. College receiving yards against career NFL receiving yards per game for receivers, live. On its own the college box score correlates; the article is about what happens once the draft slot enters the harness.
Rigor check
College rec yards against Rec ypg
Pearson correlation, re-run in your browser on current data.
The birthday. Draft age against career weighted AV, washouts included. Younger is better in the raw association; the residual-beyond-the-pick version, replicated at three positions independently, is the scripted analysis in the article backtest block.
Rigor check
Draft age against W av
Pearson correlation, re-run in your browser on current data.
The partial-correlation harness is scripted: each college facet against career value with log draft pick removed, per position, is a residual analysis rather than a single cell. Every input column it needs ships in this view.
Built on data from the nflverse project.