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TB at CAR

Live score, drives, and player lines from ESPN with Songbird EPA, win probability, and fourth-down calls.

FinalFinal

Away

43:13

Home

CAR

Win probability

TB 100%CAR 0%

Swing plays

Q2 11:05TB(Shotgun) B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-C.Kancey at CAR 32. C.Kancey for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.+13% TB17-0

Q1 0:59TBR.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-E.Deckers. D.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-K.Kieft at CAR 18.+10% TB7-0

Q2 9:09CARDarren Waller 50 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked)+9% CAR17-6

Q2 9:09TBR.Fitzgerald kicks 69 yards from CAR 20 to TB 11. K.Gainwell to TB 41 for 30 yards (N.Hampton).+8% TB19-6

Q1 12:00TB(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (A.Evans).+7% TB0-0

Songbird

Expected points

TBLg avg2025 league averageCAR

EPA per play

+0.19

-0.29

Success rate

52%

43%

EPA per dropback

+0.42

-0.43

EPA per rush

+0.14

+0.04

Yards per play

5.6

6.0

Pass rate

19%

70%

Offensive snaps only; sacks and scrambles count as dropbacks.

Songbird lines

TB

Passers

Player	DB	EPA	EPA/DB	SUCC
Baker Mayfield	11	+4.63	+0.42	46%

Rushers

Player	CAR	EPA	EPA/CAR	SUCC
Bucky Irving	24	+5.05	+0.21	63%
Kenny Gainwell	14	+3.41	+0.24	50%
Sean Tucker	7	-2.80	-0.40	29%
Baker Mayfield	1	-0.28	-0.28	0%
Tez Johnson	1	+1.18	+1.18	100%

Receivers

Player	TGT	EPA	EPA/TGT	SUCC
C.Godwin	5	+0.89	+0.18	60%
Bucky Irving	2	-0.68	-0.34	0%
Tez Johnson	2	+6.54	+3.27	100%
Cade Otton	1	-0.58	-0.58	0%
Ted Hurst III	1	-1.54	-1.54	0%

CAR

Passers

Player	DB	EPA	EPA/DB	SUCC
Bryce Young	32	-24.32	-0.76	38%
Kenny Pickett	5	+3.25	+0.65	60%

Rushers

Player	CAR	EPA	EPA/CAR	SUCC
Chuba Hubbard	7	+2.28	+0.33	57%
Trevor Etienne	6	-2.59	-0.43	33%
Anthony Tyus III	3	+0.96	+0.32	33%

Receivers

Player	TGT	EPA	EPA/TGT	SUCC
Tetairoa McMillan	6	+1.67	+0.28	67%
Chuba Hubbard	5	+0.94	+0.19	60%
Jalen Coker	4	-5.98	-1.50	25%
John Metchie III	4	-3.72	-0.93	25%
Mitchell Evans	2	+2.09	+1.04	50%
Tommy Tremble	2	+0.43	+0.21	50%
Trevor Etienne	2	+1.17	+0.58	100%
Brycen Tremayne	1	-3.68	-3.68	0%
Darren Waller	1	-0.52	-0.52	0%
David Moore	1	-2.39	-2.39	0%

Fourth downs

Time	Team	Situation	Songbird	Team call	Call	Cost
Q1 4:52	CAR	4th & 6 at CAR 44	Go (+0.5%)	Punt	Disagree	0.5% WP
Q1 0:59	TB	4th & 5 at 50	Go (+0.5%)	Punt	Disagree	0.5% WP
Q2 14:12	TB	4th & Goal at CAR 4	Go (+1.9%)	FG	Disagree	1.9% WP
Q3 13:09	CAR	4th & 30 at CAR 18	Punt (+0.3%)	Punt	Agree	0.0% WP
Q3 10:42	TB	4th & 8 at CAR 43	Punt (+0.1%)	Punt	Agree	0.0% WP
Q3 6:30	TB	4th & 4 at CAR 26	FG (+0.0%)	FG	Agree	0.0% WP
Q3 1:55	CAR	4th & 1 at TB 5	Go (+0.3%)	Go	Agree	0.0% WP
Q4 3:08	TB	4th & 1 at TB 45	Go (+0.0%)	Go	Agree	0.0% WP
Q4 1:22	CAR	4th & 6 at TB 39	FG (+0.0%)	Go	Agree	0.0% WP

Updated just now. Final box score retained from the last update.

Expected points from Songbird's model on nflfastR play-by-play, 2018-2025. Win probability from ESPN.

Live NFL

TB at CAR

Live score, drives, and player lines from ESPN with Songbird EPA, win probability, and fourth-down calls.

FinalFinal

Away

43:13

Home

CAR

Win probability

TB 100%CAR 0%

Swing plays

Q1 0:59TBR.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-E.Deckers. D.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-K.Kieft at CAR 18.+10% TB7-0

Q2 9:09CARDarren Waller 50 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked)+9% CAR17-6

Q2 9:09TBR.Fitzgerald kicks 69 yards from CAR 20 to TB 11. K.Gainwell to TB 41 for 30 yards (N.Hampton).+8% TB19-6

Q1 12:00TB(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (A.Evans).+7% TB0-0

Songbird

Expected points

TBLg avg2025 league averageCAR

EPA per play

+0.19

-0.29

Success rate

52%

43%

EPA per dropback

+0.42

-0.43

EPA per rush

+0.14

+0.04

Yards per play

5.6

6.0

Pass rate

19%

70%

Offensive snaps only; sacks and scrambles count as dropbacks.

Songbird lines

TB

Passers

Player	DB	EPA	EPA/DB	SUCC
Baker Mayfield	11	+4.63	+0.42	46%

Rushers

Player	CAR	EPA	EPA/CAR	SUCC
Bucky Irving	24	+5.05	+0.21	63%
Kenny Gainwell	14	+3.41	+0.24	50%
Sean Tucker	7	-2.80	-0.40	29%
Baker Mayfield	1	-0.28	-0.28	0%
Tez Johnson	1	+1.18	+1.18	100%

Receivers

Player	TGT	EPA	EPA/TGT	SUCC
C.Godwin	5	+0.89	+0.18	60%
Bucky Irving	2	-0.68	-0.34	0%
Tez Johnson	2	+6.54	+3.27	100%
Cade Otton	1	-0.58	-0.58	0%
Ted Hurst III	1	-1.54	-1.54	0%

CAR

Passers

Player	DB	EPA	EPA/DB	SUCC
Bryce Young	32	-24.32	-0.76	38%
Kenny Pickett	5	+3.25	+0.65	60%

Rushers

Player	CAR	EPA	EPA/CAR	SUCC
Chuba Hubbard	7	+2.28	+0.33	57%
Trevor Etienne	6	-2.59	-0.43	33%
Anthony Tyus III	3	+0.96	+0.32	33%

Receivers

Player	TGT	EPA	EPA/TGT	SUCC
Tetairoa McMillan	6	+1.67	+0.28	67%
Chuba Hubbard	5	+0.94	+0.19	60%
Jalen Coker	4	-5.98	-1.50	25%
John Metchie III	4	-3.72	-0.93	25%
Mitchell Evans	2	+2.09	+1.04	50%
Tommy Tremble	2	+0.43	+0.21	50%
Trevor Etienne	2	+1.17	+0.58	100%
Brycen Tremayne	1	-3.68	-3.68	0%
Darren Waller	1	-0.52	-0.52	0%
David Moore	1	-2.39	-2.39	0%

Fourth downs

Time	Team	Situation	Songbird	Team call	Call	Cost
Q1 4:52	CAR	4th & 6 at CAR 44	Go (+0.5%)	Punt	Disagree	0.5% WP
Q1 0:59	TB	4th & 5 at 50	Go (+0.5%)	Punt	Disagree	0.5% WP
Q2 14:12	TB	4th & Goal at CAR 4	Go (+1.9%)	FG	Disagree	1.9% WP
Q3 13:09	CAR	4th & 30 at CAR 18	Punt (+0.3%)	Punt	Agree	0.0% WP
Q3 10:42	TB	4th & 8 at CAR 43	Punt (+0.1%)	Punt	Agree	0.0% WP
Q3 6:30	TB	4th & 4 at CAR 26	FG (+0.0%)	FG	Agree	0.0% WP
Q3 1:55	CAR	4th & 1 at TB 5	Go (+0.3%)	Go	Agree	0.0% WP
Q4 3:08	TB	4th & 1 at TB 45	Go (+0.0%)	Go	Agree	0.0% WP
Q4 1:22	CAR	4th & 6 at TB 39	FG (+0.0%)	Go	Agree	0.0% WP

Updated just now. Final box score retained from the last update.

Expected points from Songbird's model on nflfastR play-by-play, 2018-2025. Win probability from ESPN.