Air yards

What it measures

The vertical distance of a target: how many yards downfield the ball was thrown, measured from the line of scrimmage to the catch point, whether or not it was caught. Air yards split every passing yard into two stories: the throw (air) and what happened after the catch (YAC). They are also the cleanest public measure of intent. A receiver's air yards tell you what role the offense asked him to play; a passer's air yards tell you how aggressively the offense attacked downfield.

For receivers, total air yards is one half of the "targets and depth" opportunity picture that drives fantasy and film debates alike: a player earning deep targets has a different ceiling than one earning screens, even at equal catch totals.

How it is computed here

The sum of the play-by-play air_yards value: over a passer's attempts for passing_air_yards, and over a receiver's targets for receiving_air_yards, complete or not, at both the week and season grain. Incompletions count, which is the point: intent is measured at the throw, not the catch. Two-point tries are excluded along with the rest of our counting stats.

How fast it stabilizes

Quickly, because it is a usage stat, not an efficiency stat. Target depth is a coaching decision repeated dozens of times a month, so a few weeks of air yards paints a reliable picture of role. What moves it is scheme change (new coordinator, new quarterback), not luck.

How it gets misused

• Reading air yards as production. They measure opportunity. A receiver with big air yards and few catches is being missed, or is not winning downfield; the pairing with receptions and YAC tells you which.
• Crediting the passer for all of it. Depth of target is heavily scheme-driven; a quarterback's air yards profile can change overnight with a new play-caller.
• Ignoring the completion cost. Deep throws complete less often, so high air yards with a low completion percentage is not automatically a problem, and CPOE is the fair judge.